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When
there is only one round of betting left and only one card
to come, comparing your chances of improving to the pot
odds you are getting is a relatively straightforward proposition.
If your chances of making a hand you know will win are,
say, 4-to-1 against and you must call a $20 bet for the
chance to win a $120 pot, then clearly your hand is worth
a call because you're getting 6-to-1 pot odds. Those 6-to-1
odds the pot is offering you (excluding bets on the end)
are greater than the 4-to-1 odds against your making your
hand.
However, when there is more than one card to come, you must
be very careful in determining your real pot odds. Many
players make a classic mistake: They know their chances
of improving, let's say, with three cards to come, and they
compare those chances to the pot odds they are getting right
now. But such a comparison is completely off the mark since
the players are going to have to put more money into the
pot in future betting rounds, and they must take that money
into account. It's true that the chances of making a hand
improve greatly when there are two or three cards to come,
but the odds you are getting from the pot worsen.
These are your effective odds - the real odds you are getting
from the pot when you call a bet with more than one card
to come. Since you are getting only 12/3-to- 1 by calling
a $10 bet after the flop, and your chances of making the
flush are 13/4-to-1, you would have to throw away the hand,
because it has turned into a losing play - that is, a play
with negative expectations. The only time it would be correct
to play the hand in this situation is if you could count
on your opponent to call a bet at the end, after your flush
card hits. Then your potential $50 win increases to $70,
giving you 70-to-30 odds and justifying a ca11.
It should be clear from this example that when you compute
odds on a hand you intend to play to the end, you must think
not in terms of the immediate pot odds but in terms of the
total amount you might lose versus the total amount you
might win. You have to ask, "What do I lose if I miss
my hand, and what will I gain if I make it?" The answer
to this question tells you your real or effective odds.
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