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Just
as many players overlook the effects of position and exposed
cards to lower the value of a hand, so too do they sometimes
overlook extra outs to increase the value of a hand. An
out is a way of improving your hand. With four hearts your
only out is another heart. But suppose you have two pair
along with the four-flush against what looks like aces up.
Now you have two outs - making a flush and a full house.
Suppose you have a four flush, two pair, and an inside straight
draw.
Now you have three outs - that is, three ways of beating
your opponent with the aces up, assuming that player doesn't
fill. Each extra out increases the value of your hand, and
it increases it considerably more than may at first be apparent.
Starting off with a two-flush and a pair in seven-card stud
is significantly better than starting with a pair and no
two-flush. In hold 'em, a back-door straight (that is, a
possible straight requiring two perfect cards at the end)
or a back-door flush draw along with a pair may be enough
to change a fold to a call.
To see how much effect these extra outs have, let's say
we assess our hand as a 7-to-1 underdog. Now we notice we
have an extra out that is about 20-to-1 against coming in.
By itself that extra out is a long shot, but it adds tremendously
to our chances of improving. Changing those 7-to-1 and 20-to-1
odds to percentages, we have a 121/2 percent chance and
about a 5 percent chance, which, added together, comes to
approximately 171/2 percent. Returning from percentages
to odds, we see that the extra out has dropped us from a
7-to-1 underdog to a 43/4-to-1 underdog. With pot odds of,
say, 5-to-1 or 6-to-1, a hand we would have folded now becomes
one worth playing. Always be aware of extra outs. Otherwise
you may fold hands with which you should have called.
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